Chaos is the New Normal

Last night I attended the Illahee Lecture Series featuring Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute. I wish I had time to comment on his lecture but this is busy season at TriLibrium so I'll be brief while providing you some interesting links.

Richard's main point was that there will be no return to normal. Global economic output as measured by GDP probably peaked in 2005/2006 and that we'll never again return to that level given the direct connection between energy and our economy. The solutions are varied and diverse but the key point is that a return to "normal" is impossible given limiting factors and the sooner we embrace this fact and transition to the new paradigm the better. A movement he mentioned and that I intend to explore further is called "Transition Towns."

I'd also like to point readers to Richard's publication "Searching for a Miracle: 'Net Energy' Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society." This report explores whether any combination of known energy sources can successfully supply society's energy needs up to the year 2100. I won't give away the answer but they explore the different solutions against 10 criteria. The report is available as a free PDF download.

I'd also like to point those interested in accounting and innovation to a recent blog post by Gifford Pinchot. Gifford discusses Intrapreneuring in Accounting and the need for innovative accountants to help provide the understanding, metrics, and systems for the economy of the future.

Health, Happiness and Sustainable Business

BGI Founder and President Emeritus Gifford Pinchot will be giving an address at the Green Festival in San Francisco next week entitled "Health, Happiness and Sustainable Business: The Happo/Dammo Ratio." I bring this up because Gifford's Happo/Dammo ratio is onto an important aspect of sustainability. Here is what Gif has to say:

The purpose of the economy is to support our health, well being and happiness. Unless we find ways to produce substantially more happiness with far less stuff and damage, our civilization is doomed. But this is a happy task, a joint project of sustainability experts, entrepreneurs, consumers, citizens, corporate innovators, academics, legislators and policy wonks. Given that most happiness comes from relationships and most of our consumption uses stuff symbolically rather than for its intrinsic value, it won’t be hard to make 1,000 fold improvements in the ratio of happiness to stuff. These innovations will often be very popular, cost-effective and profitable. In this direction lies hope and true prosperity.

Our current economy is driven by a take, make, waste consumption cycle and as long as we stay in this paradigm the future looks bleak. However, as Gifford correctly points out, we have an incredible opportunity to expand our economy by figuring out how to increase happiness while decreasing stuff. We have an unlimited and endless supply to provide comfort, joy, laughs, smiles and support. These have no environmental or social costs.

The cycle of giving support/getting support/giving support is an endless human cycle that has been around as long as humans have walked the earth. It was the basis for tribal economies. Maybe we can learn something valuable from an economic system that has been around for 100,000 years.